Papermaking Print: Rebound in the fourth quarter, prices of raw materials may become a real signal of improved demand

china printing

The paper industry is in a new capacity to focus on the release of backward production capacity out gradually extended phase downturn in the long-term demand is still the main crux of the industry by 2012 three quarters of light manufacturing SYWG a listed company achieved a total operating income of 152.208 billion yuan, an increase of 11.15%; net profit of 5.439 billion yuan, down 32.86%. Upstream raw wood pulp, waste paper price decline of nearly 30% over the same period. Since the fourth quarter of pulp prices have rebounded, but the wood pulp demand the substantive recovery still depends on downstream demand to improve. The next two years for the pulp and paper production capacity of life can be focused on the release period, will exacerbate the industry, the imbalance between supply and demand, the profitability of the industry is difficult to short-term low ebb, to maintain paper industry "neutral" rating. Industry downturn in the overall boom in this difficult situation, we think that the cost reduction logic can not support corporate fundamentals improve. Stable market demand for downstream products, price more rigid specialty paper manufacturer or a more competitive advantage in cost reduction, downstream demand is relatively stable market segments. Recommended Guanhao high 600,433.
Improving demand in the fourth quarter, raw material prices ushered in for the first time to rebound or will become true signal although three quarters of papermaking raw material prices dropped as much as 30%, but the weaker demand, both ends of the industrial chain price environment, the the downstream paper products price sensitivity more high raw material prices weak real true reflection of poor demand. Papermaking raw material prices since the third quarter but did not usher in the profitable growth of the industry, while shipments improved since October coming season triggered and prices are expected to cause the pulp and waste paper prices rebounded in the fourth quarter since, due to the inventory cycle and other reasons the short term will not bring too much direct pressure to paper enterprises, or downstream demand improved paper prices ushered in turn will become the most real signal.
Downstream of the packaging and china printing industry, consumer attributes and packaging printing class enterprise showed a stable development trend, additional service attributes, consumer attributes and uncertainty growing packaging companies are the preferred species. The expansion of the scale of the downstream customers, are contributing to the packaging industry market concentration rising, leading the company grew rapidly. Relatively papermaking sub-industry, packaging and printing experienced a significant decline in performance since 2012, but there are still some performance and stability, or the existence of an event trigger enterprise. We recommend Yongxin Shares 002014, ORG 002,701 the Hongbo shares 002,229.
The traditional peak season to promote the demand has picked up holidays and other factors to stimulate consumer demand short-term in civic light industrial sub-sectors, the fourth quarter as the Christmas shopping season approaching, the civic light industry exports data re good sign, means that the recovery of foreign demand; Canada on the baby boom in the Year of the Dragon will bring the domestic baby supplies increased consumption the Civic Light Industry operators in the second half will be better in the first half of the year, you may be concerned about the industry expect.
Concerned about the appreciation of the renminbi impact related to plate when the renminbi is strong and direct benefit to the imports of raw materials enterprises and assets denominated in foreign currencies industry. Of waste paper utilization rate is not high, so that the paper industry imports huge amount of pulp, the pulp of the paper industry's raw materials 70% dependent on imports and the high dependence on foreign, so the appreciation of the renminbi, the paper industry is the first to benefit and the benefit will in to some extent slowed the papermaking enterprise performance pressure. Specific imports decline in the cost of raw materials and exports suffered from exchange rate losses to reduce the impact of two aspects of the paper industry.